Word: saigon
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Whether and when anyone else emerges in Saigon may have considerable impact on Hanoi's strategy. Pentagon analysts no longer doubt the NVA'S ability to achieve total military victory within a few months, if not sooner. In the past month, General Van Tien Dung, the NVA'S Chief of Staff and a disciple of the legendary Vo Nguyen Giap (mastermind of the Viet Minn's 1954 victory at Dien Bien Phu and of the 1968 Tet offensive), has demonstrated an impressive ability to coordinate infantry, artillery and armor. Indeed, the Communist Southern headquarters (COSVN...
Perhaps the major dilemma facing Hanoi is whether to go for a quick, immediate strike at the capital-or whether to proceed step-by-step, which would allow ARVN more time to regroup and rebuild some of its shattered divisions. Actually, Hanoi has a third option: hoping that Saigon will fall without a fight anyway. "We do not want our compatriots to die if we can obtain our objectives by other means," declared Mme. Nguyen Thi Binh, the Provisional Revolutionary Government's Foreign Minister...
...possible strategy for a political victory would be to strangle Saigon by cutting off its Delta food supply and capturing the key cities and ports (such as Xuan Loc, Bien Hoa and Vung Tau) surrounding it. That might easily create enough discontent inside the capital to force Thieu's ouster or resignation. A new government might be ready to negotiate with the Communists and give them some sort of governing role. French President Valery Giscard d'Estaing has indicated that his country is prepared to use its "good offices" to help in the evolution of a political solution...
...course, there is always the chance that Thieu's successor might be a strong nationalist who would try to rally the armed forces for a last-ditch stand against the Communists. A bloody battle for Saigon would then become inevitable-as would its outcome. Despite the hyperbole, Hanoi's party newspaper Nhan Dan was probably correct when it boasted: "Wherever our army advances, it smashes and disintegrates all of the enemy...
There are about 5,000 American diplomatic personnel, businessmen and journalists (plus their dependents) who will have to leave Saigon if and when the city falls to the Communists. In addition, U.S. officials think that perhaps as many as 200,000 Vietnamese might be killed or imprisoned by the Communists because of their connection with the Americans or the Thieu regime. In his speech to Congress, President Ford last week promised to try to evacuate as many of these Americans and Vietnamese as possible. Contingency planners at the White House, the Pentagon and the U.S. embassy in Saigon are busy...