Word: saudi
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Dates: during 1990-1999
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...Iraq, but there is no certainty that such bombardment would have the desired effect. Saddam's country endured eight years of war with Iran, including heavy civilian bombing, and did not budge. A U.S. strike could make Saddam angry enough to send his tanks across the border into Saudi Arabia. Just as worrisome, the Iraqis could hold hostage the 3,800 Americans in Kuwait and, in effect, the population of Kuwait. Eleven Americans were apparently detained by the invading forces but later turned up unharmed in Baghdad...
...cheats. Oil is particularly easy to sneak through secret channels. U.S. officials believe that the only truly effective course would be to keep Iraqi oil bottled up at the well. This could be done by cutting off the three outlets through which Iraq exports its crude: two pipelines through Saudi Arabia, another leading to Turkey, and ships in the Persian Gulf. Oil-industry and academic experts say Iraq would collapse under such pressure in a few months or a year...
Such a plan is more easily proposed than accomplished. The U.S. last week suggested a tight naval blockade of Iraqi and Kuwaiti ports, but it has yet to find many takers among its allies. Halting the oil in the pipelines would mean persuading Turkey and Saudi Arabia to shut off the tap, or turn a blind eye while the U.S. blew up the lines. Both countries are vulnerable to Iraqi reprisals, especially Saudi Arabia...
Turkey would probably insist that Saudi Arabia take the same step, and the Saudi attitude is unclear. Ideally, Washington would like to see the Arab states stand up to Iraq so that U.N. resolutions can be pursued as support for initiatives from the countries most immediately imperiled by the Iraqi threat. In practice there is little optimism in Washington that the gulf states will display such toughness. And why should they without strong -- and credible -- guarantees of protection...
...entire embargo plan would come apart if the Saudis did not give it full support. Shutting down the pipeline would be only the first step for Riyadh. An effective halt to Saddam's oil exports would eliminate 10% of the free world's supply from the market. Saudi Arabia would be expected to increase its output to help make up the shortfall and keep prices from soaring. That would be another red flag to Saddam. In short, if an embargo is to work, the U.S. must provide credible guarantees of military protection to Saudi Arabia. Already there were proposals...