Word: saudi
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Convinced that President Bush is serious about invading Iraq, Arab leaders hope to avoid war by orchestrating a coup in Baghdad. Well-placed sources have told TIME that Saudi Arabia is vigorously pursuing a concrete plan to encourage Iraqi generals to overthrow Saddam and his clique. Western and Arab diplomats say the Saudi proposal requires a UN Security Council resolution declaring amnesty for the vast majority of Iraqi officials if they orchestrate a transition of power in Baghdad. Such an amnesty would extend to all but 100 to 120 of the most senior Baath Party officials, including Saddam, his sons...
...Although the Saudi proposal leaves open the possibility that Saddam could accept exile, Arab diplomats doubt this is a realistic scenario. Instead, they believe that Iraq's Republican Guards, the best-equipped and most loyal of Saddam's troops, will eventually switch allegiances...
...Western and Arab diplomats say that Saudi Arabia is actively canvassing support for the initiative among regional players and Security Council members. This week, President Hosni Mubarak and Turkish Prime Minister Abdullah Gul flew into Riyadh to discuss the plan with Saudi Arabia's de facto ruler, Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abdulaziz Al Saud. Without confirming the details of the initiative, Abdullah told reporters that he believed war would be avoided. Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al Faisal also refused to comment on the initiative, saying only that Arab states want a final opportunity to seek a diplomatic solution...
...Saudi initiative envisions a reformed Iraqi regime including some faces from among the exile community but composed mainly of the remnants of the outgoing system. "What does 'a change of regime' mean," says an Arab diplomat. "Getting rid of the Baath Party, the Revolutionary Guards, the governors and the police forces? Or is it Saddam Hussein? If it is Saddam Hussein, then the best way to deal with the problem is for Saddam to be targeted with his clique, but leave the administration as it is and divide him from his backup. If the Security Council tells the Iraqis...
...Arab diplomats are expecting resistance from the Bush Administration, which could have reason to fear that the Saudi initiative is little more than an Arab tactic to buy Saddam more time. Some Western diplomats in the region, however, believe the initiative may dovetail with U.S. thinking. "Politically, there would be nothing better for President Bush than to remove Saddam and disarm Iraq without firing a shot," says a Western diplomat. "All along, Washington's hope has been that as pressure gets high enough, the people around Saddam will take matters into their own hands...