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Where do you see the economy going over the next six to 12 months? The economy should be relatively strong in the first half of 2010, then weaken in the second half. That's not to say we'll return to recession, but we'll see weakness as opposed to a continuation of what will probably be a decent first half...
...government stimulus and by inventory accumulation or a lack of [inventory] liquidation among businesses. I expect nothing from consumer [spending] and nothing really from housing or really any of the standard cyclical leading sectors. It's hard to put a number on GDP growth rates, but let's say 4% in the first half and then 2% in the second half, which would basically call for some additional help. (See TIME's 2009 Person of the Year: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke...
What does this say about the Federal Reserve's hopes to start pulling its added liquidity out of the markets, either by raising short-term rates or just getting out of buying bonds, which has been keeping long rates low? I think the Fed's statements suggest that they really want to exit in some fashion from the buying program. The first step in that direction, logically, would be to stop buying, and our sense is that they're at least going to try that. But based on our forecasts for the second half of the year, they may have...
...Iran's opposition is hoping to repeat a different event from 1989 - the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of Eastern Europe's communist regimes. Despite the regime's growing threats, opposition leaders remain defiant. Mousavi warned over the weekend that the crackdown will not succeed. "I say openly that orders to execute, kill or imprison Karroubi and Mousavi will not solve the problem," said a statement on his website. Mousavi's nephew was among those killed during the Ashura protests; opposition accounts claim he was assassinated...
...China has reported some modest progress in controlling water pollution, but environmental experts both inside and outside of the government say many of the country's rivers and lakes still suffer from severe contamination. In its latest annual assessment of the state of pollution in China the Ministry of Environmental Protection said in June that the country had released several plans for control of emissions into major rivers and inspected more than 15,000 drinking-water sources. But the agency acknowledged that "surface water pollution remained very serious" and nearly half of the water in the country's rivers...