Word: saying
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...country born into that environment, which, say, did not have clearly defined borders, or had weak institutions, or was split internally, could spell disaster. "It could recreate the conditions for civil war," says Gressly. Major General Scott Gration, U.S. special envoy to Sudan, describes his task as ensuring "civil divorce, not civil war," and warns, "This place could go down in flames tomorrow. The probability of failure is great." (See a TIME video on the nun offering a refuge from violence in Sudan...
...marginalized and repressed all others - Kordofanis and Darfuris, Christians and followers of traditional beliefs, the uneducated and poor, western, eastern and southern Sudanese alike. The CPA's authors understood that the way to a united, peaceful Sudan was to remake it as a place where all Sudanese had a say. They planned to achieve this through a national election on April 11, which, if free and fair and inclusive, would weaken Khartoum's grip. The south, which suffered most from Khartoum's discrimination, would also be granted a referendum on secession...
...doubts remain. For one thing, Bashir might not be sincere. "The NCP [the ruling National Congress Party] takes a long-term view," says John Ashworth, of the IKV Pax Christi aid group and a Sudan veteran of 27 years. "They are prepared to take setbacks and retreat. They're also prepared to lie and say anything." The International Crisis Group's Sudan specialist Fouad Hikmat concurs: "Some people in the NCP say, 'There will be no referendum - instead we will burn this house.' And they can do it." One reason for the north to plan secretly to stop the south...
...Finally, there are doubts about the world's involvement. Obama's strategy is weakened by dissenters inside his Administration: Gration favors engagement; U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Susan Rice wants more aggression. Such "mixed support" for engagement inevitably leads to "mixed results," says Carter. His support for the CPA and the general election it envisages is weakened by its transformation into a largely empty exercise by the pullout of most opposition parties, citing abuse, intimidation and violation of electoral law. (On April 6 a spokesman for the State Department hinted the U.S. favored postponing the vote until a more meaningful...
...Does southern Sudan have any hope of working? "I can't say the U.S. was ready when it got independence," notes Carter. Gressly argues South Sudan doesn't have to be fully formed at first, particularly if the global mission to build it continues, as he expects, for "10 to 15 to 20 years." And despite the World Bank holdup, there is progress. Juba may not look like much, but at least it looks like something. "There used to be nothing," says Itto. Some point to the Carter Center's spectacular recent advances in its fight against Guinea worm...