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Highlighting the imprecision embedded in any forecast would help when we then go on to, say, evaluate whether a public-policy initiative - like a $787 billion stimulus package - is changing the outcome of events. Is unemployment lower than it would have been otherwise? A good starting point is being realistic about our limits of knowing what unemployment would have been otherwise...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Why Are Economists So Bad at Forecasting? | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

...authors of the study are reluctant to draw such broad conclusions about the gender disparities. "There are many different possible explanations," says NIMH neuroscientist Daniel Pine, who suggests a much more ordinary reason for the girls' more emotional response. "It might be possible that the girls are trying to remember what they wrote earlier [about the kids in the photos]," he says. "You can imagine a scenario where they say, 'Oh, did I write something bad about that girl?' Boys are simply doing that less." In other words, it may be that boys are cads because they're not wired...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Why Girls Have BFFs and Boys Hang Out in Packs | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

...orientation seemed to prove me right—we were served the same beef stew, which had more bones in it than actual meat, every single night. Sometimes we hard-working volunteers had to subsist on only makande for lunch, a stew of maize and beans. Needless to say, I was less than satisfied...

Author: By Kate Leist | Title: Taste Test | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

...they are behaving like the FARC, what lessons are there from Colombia that can be applied in Afghanistan? A lot of people say to me that the last thing we want to do is get involved in another messy drug war, and I always say, "Too late." The biggest challenge is corruption, because as much money as the insurgents are earning off the drug trade, corrupt officials in Afghanistan and Pakistan are earning even more. It's going to be very complex for the U.S. and for the international community, for NATO, to find reliable and trustworthy partners to work...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Fighting the New Narcoterrorism Syndicates | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

...border areas to create the correct environment for a bottom-up stability campaign at the village level. U.S. and NATO military officials, working alongside civilian officials, can work with communities to push these people out. There is no point in trying to reconcile with the Taliban - and when I say the Taliban, I mean the leadership of the Taliban. We're never going to beat the Taliban and al-Qaeda by trying to shoot them all. However, I do believe that there are many tribes living on the southern Afghanistan border that can be pulled away from the insurgency...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Fighting the New Narcoterrorism Syndicates | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

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