Word: scenario
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...does this spell the end for "the Butcher of the Balkans"? It's unlikely, at least in the short term. Nobody holds on to power as mercilessly as Milosevic. In the dictator's best-case scenario, he can hope for continuing control, thanks to a paucity of opponents and the postwar inertia of a beaten population. But if there are uprisings against him at home, he is more than ready to crush them. And while his indictment by the Hague war-crimes tribunal means he can't hope for a cushy retirement in any U.N.-compliant country, there are some...
...which may be why competition to claim them is fierce. With the Yugoslav army and Serb civilians pouring out of the province, armed KLA units are moving quickly to take control of as much of Kosovo as they can get their hands on. Although this supposedly was precisely the scenario the peace agreement was designed to avoid, NATO?s ambiguous relationship with the KLA -- which was a de facto ally against the Serbs until two weeks ago -- and the movement?s political agenda may have made it inevitable. "NATO knew from the start that demilitarizing the KLA would...
While in the worst-case scenario, failure to reach agreement with Russia creates the possibility of a Berlin 1945-style partition of Kosovo, Moscow?s gambit could also be designed for domestic consumption in Russia and Yugoslavia, emphasizing that Kosovo hasn?t been surrendered to NATO. So don?t expect Western and Russian forces to square off in a Cold War replay. Like the space race, the rush to get to Kosovo may be more about planting a flag...
...third term runs out in the middle of a presidential election. According to one scenario, Clinton may leave the decision up to Vice President Al Gore '69. And if the Democrats regain control of the Senate, they may want to have someone from within the party at the helm...
...superpower arms race may depend on how Washington manages this dangerous rift. The Cox report offers a stark warning. If we get hostile, they will get hostile. If both China and the U.S. give in to extremists in their capitals and let their relationship unravel, the worst-case scenario the report presents just might come true...