Word: scenarios
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...says, the question should be: "Do you wish your country to be part of the E.U. and adopt the constitution or do you wish your country to leave the E.U.?" But a no vote doesn't automatically mean ejection or even the death of the constitution. A more likely scenario, says Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, is that a "messy core" of countries would proceed while the naysayers would get some kind of associate membership. That's the sort of compromise that has worked in the past when E.U. treaties have run aground...
When considering last week’ assassination of Rafiq Hariri, this notion of civil volatility is all too apparent. Consider the two scenarios for Hariri’s assassination: either Syria is responsible, or they are not. If Syria is in fact accountable, the brutal assassination would be motivated by the Syrian leadership’s desire to reassert its power in Lebanon. In recent months, the U.S. has chosen to lambaste Syria’s presence in Lebanon, subsequently imposing sanctions on the country—an ironic demand considering the American occupation of Iraq. Thus, Damascus may have...
Several of Posner’s disaster set-ups feel like they’ve been ripped from the scripts of Hollywood blockbusters (think Armageddon or The Matrix). But his strangelet scenario deserves special consideration here at Harvard because particle accelerators figure prominently in the work of several of the University’s most prominent physicists...
Posner takes a midpoint between the two disaster estimates, and he posits—for the sake of argument—that the likelihood of a world-ending strangelet scenario over the next decade is 1 in 10 million. In other words, there’s a 1 in 10 million chance that 6 billion people will die at some point in the next decade because of RHIC. Thus on average, we would expect RHIC to kill 60 people per year. Is that a sacrifice we should be willing to make to push the frontiers of physics forward...
...benefit analysis is only useful if the risk is non-zero,” Feldman wrote in an e-mail. “But in the strangelet scenario, “the risk is sufficiently close to zero that risk-benefit analysis is not helpful...