Word: scenarios
(lookup in dictionary)
(lookup stats)
Dates: all
Sort By: most recent first
(reverse)
...Moreover, most economists expect Beijing will successfully cool growth without major economic disruption. "I don't see a 'sky-is-falling' scenario," says Bruce Murray, country director for the Asian Development Bank in Beijing. "It's not like exports to China are going to crash. China will continue to grow at a significant rate" of 8.3% this year and 8.2% in 2005, he estimates. But that's not to say that some overheated sectors in which investment has been rampant will not suffer. Beijing has targeted a number of industries-among them aluminum, autos, construction supplies, real estate, steel...
...Proponents of the soft-landing scenario note that Beijing has made great progress in modernizing its economy since 1994, increasing the country's resilience. China is now a member of the World Trade Organization, has more-diverse industries and markets, a more flexible industrial base and a better-trained workforce. Although the country's official growth target of 7% is thought to be difficult to achieve, the median prediction among economists tracked by Bloomberg holds that China's GDP growth will slow to 8.7% this year...
...That level of easing does not pose a threat to the global recovery, says Val Koromzay, an economist with the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in Paris. The worst-case scenario, he says, is the simultaneous occurrence of higher oil prices, higher U.S. interest rates, lagging growth in Europe-plus a hard landing in China. "If you put all of these things together, that would be a cocktail that could be hard to absorb," he says, quickly adding that he sees it as a "low-probability event." But by itself, China "is not No. 1 on the list...
...tone prompted hopes that another round of retribution might be avoided. Putin "could really go down in history as the person who ended this long tragedy," says Akhmed Zakayev, Maskhadov's representative in London. To do that, Zakayev and others say, Putin should negotiate with Maskhadov - an unlikely scenario given that the Kremlin has branded Maskhadov a terrorist. Despite Putin's restraint, many people believe more violence is inevitable. "No more bloodshed in Chechnya? That's completely ridiculous," says Anne Nivat, author of Chienne de Guerre: A Woman Reporter Behind the Lines of the War in Chechnya. "It's been...
There are "no easy options" among the Bush Administration's difficult choices in Iraq [April 19]. But here's one scenario: Replace the head of the Coalition Provisional Authority with an experienced mayor of a large city. Add to the military a police force that knows how to deal with an unruly urban civilian population. The one thing the U.S. should not do is "stay the course," as advocated by President Bush. PETER R. LANTOS Erdenheim...