Word: scenarios
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...explicitly not ruled out restraint in the case of Iraq. While Rumsfeld tried to defend his position in an interview with the American Forces Press Service by saying that regime change had been policy since the Clinton administration, Bush was insisting that war with Iraq was a worst case scenario...
...Asia also have access to substantial oil stocks to help them weather the likely drought. President Bush has given orders to top off America's 700 million--bbl. Strategic Petroleum Reserve--enough oil to meet U.S. needs for 36 days. That process is about 85% complete. The most probable scenario, according to a study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a research institute in Washington, has oil prices running up a few dollars, to about $36 per bbl. As Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal al-Saud, one of the world's leading stock-market investors, tells TIME...
Here's a nightmare scenario: Iraqi ground troops led by the Republican Guard resist to the bitter end. Saddam hunkers down in a densely populated section of Baghdad, broadcasting calls for sabotage against oil facilities around the Persian Gulf. Large-scale battles tail off in a few weeks, but sporadic attacks on U.S. forces and oil installations continue. Fearful workers and engineers refuse to operate Iraq's oil fields, which close down for as long as six months. In this case, experts say, prices would probably peak above $40 per bbl. and, once fighting ended, fall gradually by year...
...Saddam were able to sabotage not only his own oil fields but also those of neighboring nations, a major shortfall of up to 6 million bbl. a day--8% of world consumption--is foreseeable. To guard against this scenario, Kuwait is making emergency plans to export its oil safely. The U.S. and its allies have also announced that they will coordinate releases that could amount to several million barrels a day from strategic reserves. But the shock could still push up prices to $80 per bbl., tailing off to about $50 by year's end. That compares with an inflation...
...doesn’t look good,” Prasse-Freeman said. “The best-case scenario may be that he is allowed to return at a future time...