Word: scenarios
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...group of scientists at the University of California's Lawrence Livermore laboratory recently used a computer model to estimate the effect of a worst- case scenario: simultaneous fires at all of Kuwait's rigs that would put as much as 50,000 tons of soot into the sky each day. "We see no way it's going to get to the upper atmosphere," says Michael MacCracken, who headed the project. "It will get rained out." A black, oily shower was descending upon Iran not long after last week's fires began...
...bell was immediately followed by wild cheers and shouts of "Buy! Buy! Buy!" When the excitement was over, the exchange had recorded one of its busiest days in history. The Dow Jones average rose more than 114 points, the second highest one-day gain ever, to 2623.51. "The best scenario possible seems to be taking place," declared James Bellini, head of equity trading for the firm Dain Bosworth. "People realized that the outbreak of war was not as negative as they anticipated...
...justify a war costing thousands of casualties for such a small sliver of territory. Moreover, since that sliver approximates Iraq's initial demands on Kuwait, Saddam could plausibly claim that he had won what he really wanted. Some American and allied officials refer to this as "the nightmare scenario" since they think it represents Saddam's best chance of escaping punishment and remaining a menace for the future. But Saddam might see an even better choice...
Saddam's potential victory scenario comes in two different versions...
...clean as planned. More important, if such plans were drawn and executed, a key strategic goal could be crippled. If Saddam is reckless enough to "take" a war, then he will have proved his insanity and his ability to wage battle again ought to be eliminated. Thus the scenario that envisions Saddam suing for peace after absorbing a first blow is best rejected. As in , 1967, when the Arab nations that fought Israel ran to the U.N. for a cease- fire resolution as soon as Jerusalem's superiority was manifest, such a resolution must await a complete military victory...