Word: scenarios
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...gloom-and-doom camp makes a persuasive case. Nouriel Roubini, a professor at New York University, had been warning for years of the dangers of an international financial implosion - and the current economic crisis proved him depressingly right. In a recent article Roubini has laid out a bleak scenario for China. "The risk of a hard landing in China is sharply rising," he writes. "A deceleration in the Chinese growth rate ... is highly likely, and an even worse outcome cannot be ruled out." But a clique of China specialists inside the country predicts a different outcome. They believe that...
...Fragile Gains The scenario makes some observers nervous. Says one UNPOL source: "If the s__ hits the fan, the PNTL will just head for home. They will go back to their villages and it will be every man for himself." Australian academic Bu Wilson has just completed a review of the PNTL's capability. She fears that "rather than rebuilding the PNTL, the U.N. mission may be instead bequeathing a weak and unstable police force to Timor-Leste...
...dollar invested in the HAT program, $12 is saved on law enforcement, judicial, and health costs. While both sides debate the issue, ultimately the decision on HAT's fate is up to the voters. If they reject the law, the program's future is hazy. And that's one scenario that doesn't sit well with Heun. "For everyone's sake," she says, "I really hope the people will vote 'yes.'" Otherwise, she fears she and her fellow addicts might be be back on the streets...
...will take a major bite out of inflation - one that could literally offset the decline in your portfolio. "The real enemy of retirement is inflation," notes Fisher. He points to this model: Say you have a $2.5 million nest egg that is growing 7% a year. In one scenario, you have no extraordinary economic events and normal long-term growth that produces inflation of 4% a year as you age from 65 to 95. In the second scenario, a severe recession knocks your portfolio down to $2 million. But because of the crisis, over the next 30 years inflation averages...
...Denis. Originally made as an extended commercial for a Japanese car that was never released, the film was shown at the Harvard Film Archive on Nov. 7 and 8 as part of a retrospective honoring Denis, who spoke at both screenings. While the premise sounds implausible, she renders this scenario completely real, as she does in all her films. She assembles a collage of circumstantial details that, when brought together in light, image, and sound, seems to express everything you feel but never could articulate. Denis did not grow up wanting to be a filmmaker. As the daughter of colonial...