Word: scharf
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...Orleans was a disaster site before Katrina. So far that year, 202 people had been murdered. Computer models predicted that about 107 more were going to be killed before the year was out. "We were watching the lid come off," says Peter Scharf, a University of New Orleans criminologist. At that rate, not only would New Orleans have once again ranked as deadlier than New York City or Los Angeles, but it would also have been so much more violent that it really belonged in another country altogether. By the time Katrina hit, most law-enforcement types in the city...
...first two months after the storm, there was relative peace--even in Houston, to which 150,000 people had fled. Evacuees were involved in just three murders in September and October, Houston police say. "Could this mean that hurricanes are actually good for crime?" wondered criminologist Scharf...
...returned. FEMA assistance is expected to drop in the next several months, which could also incite crime. Meanwhile, 300 N.O.P.D. officers are still living in hotels. "It's very difficult to fight crime when you're suffering from the same sources of depression and disruption as everyone else," says Scharf...
...have also been arrested in the area-something that was unusual before Katrina, police say. With fewer police, a decimated court system and a history of entrenched malfeasance, the city is extremely vulnerable. "The discussion I've been having with people is, "Could you end up worse off?" says Scharf, who worries not just about the absence of police but about the disruption in the lives of criminals and potential criminals themselves, the loss of family, homes, schools and other scaffolding that helped contain the mayhem...
...stake, and so is the recovery of New Orleans. If crime soars, residents will not return. If they don't return, bringing money, momentum and stability with them, crime will continue to increase. "I think [the homicide rate] will become the major issue over the next few months," says Scharf. "I hope I'm wrong...