Word: schuchat
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...estimating the true impact of H1N1 on the U.S. population; it takes into account the patients left out of the official lab-confirmed tally. "We know that a number of deaths that we're seeing are occurring outside of the hospital where testing is not possible," Dr. Anne Schuchat, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters at a briefing on Thursday. "We also know that not every patient with influenza gets a diagnosis of flu. For influenza it's virtually impossible to find every case with a lab test. So the estimation method...
...Schuchat stressed that the numbers do not reflect any change in the spread of the virus or the course of the disease. The researchers simply applied a unique multiplier to each set of data in order to come up with the estimates. With respect to the number of cases of H1N1 infection, for example, CDC scientists believe that for every one case that is reported and confirmed with a laboratory test, there are 79 additional ones that go unrecorded. For every documented case of H1N1 hospitalization, there are an estimated 2.7 that are missed...
...These estimates give us a better [sense] of how much disease, hospitalization and death there is than we would get by just counting individual laboratory confirmed cases," says Schuchat. "It isn't a switch or a change from the way we've been counting cases so far. What we're really trying to do is give you a bigger picture...
...numbers underscore the importance of vaccination in the effort to curb the spread of the disease, says Schuchat. They also support health officials' decision to target high-risk populations for the first immunizations. Of all hospitalized Americans, more than half were between ages 18 and 64, while only 9% were 65 or older. That distribution is the opposite of the way seasonal flu usually affects a community; in that case, 90% of hospitalizations are usually among the elderly...
...Schuchat and other government officials are getting closer to putting a better solution in place. As Schuchat made clear on Sept. 24 in a briefing at the White House, the flu vaccine is set to arrive in the next few weeks, sparking a national vaccination campaign that will be run by state and local governments. Early tests on the vaccine have been promising: there are no red flags about safety, and studies suggest that many Americans will be able to build up sufficient flu resistance with just one dose, instead of the two or three doses that were initially predicted...