Word: schwartze
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...Staff writer Bari M. Schwartz can be reached at bschwart@fas.harvard.edu...
Sometimes scenarios can presage those surprises more than a decade ahead of time. In his seminal book The Art of the Long View (1991)--now part of the curriculum at many management schools--Schwartz outlined three post--cold war scenarios for the year 2005. New Empires saw the rise of multiple warring trading blocs. Market World imagined the spread of capitalism creating a peaceful "global commons." But the most prescient vision was Change Without Progress--a world plagued by ethnic revolution, "global gang wars," corporate raiders, hackers and "portable radio-connected telephones...
...little wonder so many listen when Schwartz speaks. GBN, which was sold in 2000 to the Monitor Group, based in Cambridge, Mass., for a seven-figure sum, has seen a 25% rise in requests for scenarios this year alone. Schwartz won't say who he's currently working with but says he has been asked to come up with several scenarios for a second George W. Bush Administration. If Bush prevails, Schwartz says, the President may become more internationalist and environmentalist. "Even the auto industry is greener than this Administration," he says...
...Schwartz, of course, has been wrong--spectacularly, embarrassingly so. On Aug. 1, 1990, he had dinner with a Chicago CEO and client who asked whether reports of the Iraqi army massing on the border with Kuwait were anything to worry about. "Don't think twice about it," replied Schwartz, who had worked long enough in the oil industry for Shell to be familiar with Iraqi saber rattling. The next day Kuwait was invaded, and Schwartz "looked like an idiot," he concedes. "I applied an old mental map to a new situation and failed to force myself to be imaginative...
...behavior of one of the most fickle, most influential demographics in the world: the Tokyo hipster. Former jazz musician (and current Federal Reserve Chairman) Alan Greenspan has been staring the future in the face for years and has to put our money (and his) where his mouth is. Peter Schwartz is the man whom Senators, CEOS and movie directors go to for previews of the future. He predicted the rise of OPEC in the 1970s and the fall of the World Trade Center...