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That's the kind of pick-your-perspective choice offered by a new paper published in the journal Science about the catastrophic rise in sea levels we could expect if the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) continues to melt away as a result of global warming. According to a study by a team of researchers from the U.K. and the Netherlands, the much feared collapse of the WAIS could cause a 9-ft. rise in the planet's seas and oceans, laying waste to coastal lands and immersing some nations entirely. That's a doomsday scenario by most measures - until...
...most dangerous part of the Antarctic ice cap is in the west, where much of the continent lies slightly below sea level. Ice shelves that fringe the land keep the seawater out, but if those should melt, the water would rush in and destabilize the larger sheet, leading to slipping, more melting and the possibility of a catastrophic collapse. Picture New Orleans when the levees overtopped; now picture the flooding going global...
...were a little alarmist. For one thing, in previous studies, climatologists had defined the area that would be most susceptible to a collapse too widely, including, for example, the Antarctic Peninsula, which the paper calls "both topographically and glaciologically distinct from the WAIS," mostly because it lies largely above sea level. Its higher elevation would put it out of reach of coastal meltwater, keeping its ice cover primarily intact. What's more, even within the areas of the WAIS that lie below sea level, there are localized spots that poke above it, and these too would be relatively safe. Factoring...
...this makes the need for a deal at the multinational climate summit set to convene in Copenhagen this December all the more pressing. And if you need one more reason to hope we at last get warming under control, consider this: The new study did not even consider the sea-level impact of Greenland, glaciers and other ice-capped lands melting. Add that water to the bucket, and you ought to get things sloshing but good...
...tense standoffs in recent months between American and PLA surveillance vessels near China's southern Hainan island may be an augur of what lies ahead. A new submarine base there gives Beijing a vital edge in the South China Sea, whose waters are contested by five other governments. The disputed Spratly and Paracel archipelagoes, which sit above reserves of natural gas, have been an ongoing bone of contention between China, Taiwan and Vietnam. Further afield, China and India, Asia's other rising giant, are locked in a protracted contest of influence over the Indian Ocean, with China setting...