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...problem is twofold. First, it's hard to predict the future. Second, it's really hard to predict the future when so many parts of the economy are in flux. "This has been an extraordinarily difficult period for forecasters," says Harvard economist James Stock. "Our models aren't really designed for predicting massive changes." Philip Joyce, a professor of public policy and administration at George Washington University, figures that in normal times, budget projections a couple of years out tend to be pretty reliable, at five years less so and at 10 years not much at all. "But these aren...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Why Are Economists So Bad at Forecasting? | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

Even with averaging, though, forecasts can still be wildly disappointing - as the Philadelphia Fed's Survey of Professional Forecasters shows. In mid-February, the economists collectively predicted a second-quarter unemployment rate of 8.3%. The difference between that and the actual figure, 9.3%, translates into 1.5 million more people unemployed...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Why Are Economists So Bad at Forecasting? | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

...culinary customs started to get even stranger. Our first morning in the homestay, I was handed a plate of peanuts for breakfast. Legumes and instant coffee? Not my favorite way to start the day. Some of my friends brought jam to their families as a gift, and on their second night, found themselves extending their hands to be served a spoonful of it to eat plain...

Author: By Kate Leist | Title: Taste Test | 7/17/2009 | See Source »

...decade to uncover and document extrajudicial killings, torture, disappearances and kidnappings in Chechnya had made her many enemies, including Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov, the republic's Kremlin-backed President. She had also become a thorn in the side of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who as President presided over the Second Chechen War, which began in 1999 and ended in 2002. (See pictures of Putin...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Killings of Russia's Human-Rights Activists Continue | 7/16/2009 | See Source »

...Estemirova's murder marks the second assassination of a Russian human-rights figure this year, after the shooting of lawyer Stanislav Markelov in January, and the seventh killing in 10 months of opponents of Kadyrov, including two in broad daylight in central Moscow. "It seems to be open season on anyone trying to highlight the appalling human-rights abuses in Chechnya," said Kenneth Roth, HRW's head, in a statement. "It's high time the Russian government acted to stop these killings and prosecute those responsible." (Read "Murder in Moscow: A Lawyer Gunned Down...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Killings of Russia's Human-Rights Activists Continue | 7/16/2009 | See Source »

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