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...bullish? Historical data indicate that consumers step up spending in the year following a recession's trough, says Canally. However, he concedes this year's snapback won't be as big as those following the last two recessions, since consumers currently face headwinds from high unemployment, the battered housing sector and frozen credit markets. "We're well into a jobless recovery, credit lines have been cut, and consumers can no longer use their houses as ATMs," he says. Nevertheless, Canally says, consumers are benefiting from last year's rebound in the stock market and higher consumer savings rate, which makes...
...government stimulus will total $36 billion this fiscal year, or only 3% of GDP. By comparison, China's two-year, $585 billion package is roughly twice as large, at about 6% of GDP per year. Most important, India managed to achieve its substantial growth without putting its banking sector at risk. In fact, India's banks have remained quite conservative through the downturn, especially compared with Chinese lenders. Growth of credit, for example, was actually lower in 2009 than in 2008. As a result, economists see continued strength in India's banks. A January report by economic-research outfit Centennial...
...Despite the billions the government spent on consumer-spending incentives to stimulate industrial output - like implementing cash-for-clunkers subsidies for new car buyers - the schemes didn't lead to massive growth in manufacturing. Industrial production and service-sector activities fared no better than the overall 0.1% growth figure for the fourth quarter, economists noted. "When the results were announced this morning during the meeting we were holding for the occasion, the hundreds of gathered guests all howled in derision and embarrassment at the figures they heard," says David Buik, a market analyst at the London brokerage firm BGC Partners...
...real loneliness of the office does not come from old friends preening and new ones pretending. It comes from the nature of the job. Dwight D. Eisenhower recalled how as a general, before D-Day, he had to decide whether to send two paratroop divisions into a sector where 9 out of 10 would probably be slaughtered. He eventually decided the troops were essential to the mission, and for years after that, he said, "I felt that only once in a lifetime could a problem of that sort weigh as heavily on a man's mind and heart." Then...
...where Russia had previously taken the lead in blocking sanctions efforts, that role has now fallen to China, which has a rapidly growing stake in Iran's energy sector. Beijing believes that while Iran must be brought into compliance with the international nonproliferation regime, its nuclear program does not represent an imminent danger of producing nuclear weapons and diplomacy should therefore be given a lot more time...