Word: serb
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Dates: during 2000-2009
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...everyone agrees. Most Kosovo Albanians, who make up an estimated 90% of the population, do indeed see independence as long overdue. But Serbia itself and Kosovo's Serb minority remain implacably opposed to the idea. On the eve of the final round of talks this week between Kosovo Albanians and Serbs aimed at negotiating a solution to Kosovo's status (legally, it is now no more than a province of Serbia), Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica vowed that Belgrade would "never let an inch of its territory be taken away." Kosovo Serbs warned of "permanent instability" if Kosovo is granted...
Kosovo Albanians have been agitating for full independence from Belgrade since before NATO planes drove Serb forces out of the province in 1999. But the U.N. resolution which helped end that conflict left the province part of Serbia. Last year, the U.N. introduced a plan that envisioned "supervised" independence for the territory, with the full blessing of the international community. But Belgrade, backed by Moscow, refused to budge. "Kosovo is our Jerusalem," Bozidar Djelic, Serbia's Deputy Prime Minister, told TIME recently. "That's where our church was born. That's where our kings were crowned...
Russia, for its part, continues to insist that by allowing Kosovo to break away without the U.N.'s approval, the West is violating international law. Western officials counter that after experiencing the horrors of former Serb strongman Slobodan Milosevic in the 1990s, it is pointless to expect that Albanians would ever again agree to live under Belgrade...
...risk of real trouble? Belgrade is threatening to cut off electricity supplies and close trade corridors, but it has ruled out a military response, and 15,000 NATO peacekeepers remain on the ground in Kosovo to prevent open conflict. But in one scenario, ethnic Serb police stationed in northern Kosovo and supervised by the U.N. would change sides after a declaration of independence, thus compelling the U.N. to impose martial law. Violence could also flare if ethnic Albanians attempt to march on Mitrovice to prevent it from seceding. Any such conflict could easily spill across borders. Meanwhile, Serbs in neighboring...
Behind all such calculations loom concerns over how Serbia and Russia might react to Kosovo declaring independence. All politicians in Belgrade, including pro-Western ones, have publicly opposed full independence; Serbs in neighboring Bosnia have even threatened to split from Sarajevo in retaliation. Serb officials say war is not an option, but Belgrade could suspend diplomatic relations with the U.S. and other countries that recognize Kosovo. Losing Kosovo, a vital locus of Serbian national feeling, may also radicalize Serbian politics and push moderate nationalists like Kostunica away from the E.U. and into Russian hands. "Serbia should not seek the company...