Word: serbia
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...horrors visited upon Bosnia-Herzegovina, it is difficult to believe that the Yugoslav conflict could get much worse. But that is exactly what Western officials fear is likely to occur when Belgrade turns its attention to Kosovo, the predominantly Albanian province that is a disputed part of southern Serbia. A U.S. analyst says Serbian "ethnic cleansing" there is "inevitable"; a senior Administration official predicts the spark that ignites a bloody Kosovo war could come in "the next two or three months...
...this time, as in 1914, the conflagration could spread beyond Serbia. A Serb slaughter of Kosovars "is the point where the conflict will automatically trigger a wider Balkan war," says a U.S. official. It would almost certainly involve Albania and perhaps Macedonia, Greece, Bulgaria and even Turkey. If two NATO members become embroiled, the alliance could also be dragged in. "It's our nightmare scenario," says a senior British diplomat...
...dominant view among Western analysts is that Milosevic still has his hands full with Bosnia, and will avoid extending the war to Kosovo until his current charm offensive to secure diplomatic recognition of Serbia's gains in Bosnia has stalled. "But we have continually underestimated the savagery of this war," says a Western diplomat. "Kosovo is the one unifying issue he's got." If economic sanctions and international isolation make Serbs restive about Milosevic's rule, he could find a Kosovo clash very useful to prevent a coup by more radical Serbs who would consider peace a betrayal...
...because there has been too much violence in the Balkans. But since the war in Slovenia and Bosnia, Serbian ideology is one of brute force. Nonviolence may become absurd in these circumstances." The Kosovars harbor the dangerous conviction that the U.S. and Europe will help them win independence from Serbia -- the same conviction once held by moderates in Bosnia. But because Kosovo has never been an independent republic and is technically part of Serbia, Western governments will have even more difficulty mustering a case for backing the Kosovars against Belgrade...
...BALKANS: An Ever Greater Serbia...