Word: serbia
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...republics have been whittled down to two. First Slovenia and Croatia went their own ways, then Bosnia withdrew, triggering the long siege of Sarajevo, then Macedonia managed to get out miraculously without violence. Now, with a seemingly minor election later this week in the small mountain republic of Montenegro, Serbia's remaining partner in the incredible shrinking federation is set to leave as well. That will close the book on one of the least successful political entities of the 20th century...
...broke with the strongman in 1997, against a pro-Yugoslav opposition with close ties to the democratic leadership in Belgrade. If Djukanovic wins - and polls currently give his coalition 44% of the vote vs. 26% for his nearest rivals - he has vowed to hold a referendum on independence from Serbia as early as June. Various polls peg support for independence at between 47% and 58%, and that is likely to grow once a secessionist campaign begins. Djukanovic, 39, enjoys considerable personal authority, and his government controls much of the media...
...Secession, should it take place, will likely trigger a new contest for power in Serbia between disparate members of the 18-party coalition led by Vojislav Kostunica. In the longer term, it could also encourage other breakaway groups, from ethnic Albanians in Macedonia to Croats in Bosnia...
...Independence would probably not make much difference in daily life in Montenegro. It no longer pays taxes into the federal coffers. It has its own police force. And in 1999 it introduced Germany's deutsche mark as its official currency. Ties with Serbia are so distant that Yugoslavia recently opened a "representative's" office in Podgorica, like some foreign diplomatic mission. In Serbia, on the other hand, the fallout from secession will be considerable. "If Montenegro goes, Serbia would effectively become a new country," Kostunica says. Elections might precipitate the breakup of the ruling coalition and, as President...
...Belgrade was sent to Podgorica on election day. This time, they were told not to attend, which was a message in itself. The international community hopes to persuade Djukanovic to reconsider - he's been saying the Yugoslav federation should be broken up, and then some looser relationship negotiated with Serbia. But the West wants to convince him to stay in the federation and negotiate a new relationship with Serbia. And against that will be the pressure from the liberals, who will try to push him in the opposite direction - and without them he will find it difficult to govern...