Word: shamir
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...clincher in Assad's decision to sit down with Israel may have been the way Bush explained the U.S. role. First get to the peace conference, said Bush; give Shamir his procedural points. But once negotiations begin, the U.S. and the Soviets are committed to follow through to a comprehensive settlement. Washington's foundations for the settlement, Bush reiterated, are Security Council resolutions 242 and 338, which call on Israel to trade land it has occupied since 1967 for security guarantees from the Arab states. In the U.S. view, the West Bank, Gaza, the Golan Heights and East Jerusalem...
Assad undoubtedly realized that he was playing into Israel's hands by hanging back. Shamir had no need to say yes, and Washington had no leverage on Israel's decision until Syria agreed to the conference. Now Assad has focused the pressure on Israel...
...soon as this week's summit winds up in Moscow, Baker will fly back to Jerusalem to finesse the last Israeli objections and preconditions. Most Middle East experts believe that Shamir will acquiesce and that the regional conference will convene in a few months. That would be a step toward the peace process but nothing close to an overall solution. Once the bilateral negotiations begin, Israel may go along with autonomy for Palestinians on the West Bank and Gaza. But Shamir vows to oppose any territorial concessions, offering only what he calls "peace for peace...
Rethinking of that sort has no place in Shamir's strategy, so he might already be pondering how to derail the negotiations if pressure to make concessions becomes overwhelming. One way for him to bail out would be to arrange for several hard-liners to resign from his governing coalition, causing its collapse. That would produce an Israeli election just as the U.S. goes into its own presidential year, when American politicians are even less eager than usual to try to coerce Israel...
...Bush Administration's reluctance to grant Israel's request for $10 billion in housing-loan guarantees may not be just a ploy to press the Shamir government to talk peace with its Arab neighbors. Some of Bush's advisers make an economic argument: they see little difference between Israel's economy and the state-run mess in the Soviet Union. "We've had some suggestions -- including some from Israelis -- that the worst thing we can do is send a $10 billion loan guarantee to the socialist system in place in Israel," says a senior official. Bush is considering a plan...