Word: shamir
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Whoever speaks for the Palestinians will find Israel a prickly interlocutor. The target of dozens of unprovoked Scud attacks, the Israelis will be in no mood to compromise and may use Saddam's continued leadership as yet another excuse to avoid negotiations. Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir put it bluntly last week: "There can be no peace in the region so long as Saddam Hussein remains in power." But Shamir has yet to face the fact that, regardless of Saddam's personal fate, the Middle East will never achieve a lasting peace until Israelis and Palestinians are ready to sit down...
...return, Shamir is hoping for lenient treatment once the U.S. turns its attention to the Arab-Israeli conflict. He may be in for a surprise. Says a U.S. diplomat: "We're going to owe some Arab countries much more than we owe Israel." Distrusting Bush and Baker, Shamir is banking instead on the support of Congress, which will have its eye on the 1992 elections...
...precaution, Shamir has also promised to revive his own peace initiative, which he buried last year after Baker took it seriously. The plan called for direct peace talks with the Arab states, as well as elections in the territories to choose leaders who would then negotiate limited autonomy with Israel. This time Shamir hopes to quash the P.L.O.'s campaign for a Palestinian homeland once and for all, while demanding that Arab nations end their state of belligerency with Israel. He says, "Arafat and his ilk are the biggest supporters of the murderer in Baghdad. The time has come...
...financial aid. Last month Finance Minister Yitzhak Modai estimated that Israel would need $3 billion to cover war-related costs and $7 billion to $10 billion more in grants and loan guarantees over the next five years to help absorb Soviet Jewish immigrants. The angry response in Washington forced Shamir to backpedal furiously, and the figures are now described as mere talking points...
...against Iraq has improved both Israel's image and its security. But unless Shamir can adapt to the postwar order, those gains will be short-lived. So far, his ambitious strategy looks disastrous. As long as he refuses to deal with the Palestinians, he cannot expect peace with the Arab states. Nor will Washington automatically provide the billions in aid needed to house and employ Soviet Jews. If Shamir simply chooses to hunker down and avoid compromise, his nation may find itself even more isolated than it was before...