Word: shi'a
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...blocs have already indicated they will contest the results and demand recounts. Even if the results announced today hold up to scrutiny, there's a chance al-Maliki will be able to pull together a coalition to form the new government and retain the Prime Ministership. Meanwhile, the main Shi'ite bloc, the National Iraqi Alliance, won 70 seats; the main Kurdish alliance got 43. A simple majority of 163 seats is needed to govern. (See a 2004 interview with then Prime Minister Allawi...
...first post-Saddam government in 2004, Allawi headed a corrupt, inept administration that set a poor tone for Iraq's fledgling democracy. As an American appointee, he lacked street cred. He projected himself as a democratic strongman - a contradiction in terms that convinced few of his countrymen. Although a Shi'ite, he alienated many among the majority sect by espousing a secular view of Iraq. Many Iraqis were suspicious of his ties to Saddam Hussein's Baath Party, even though Allawi had left the party in 1975 and had survived an assassination attempt ordered by the dictator. (See what Allawi...
When elections were held for a transitional government at the end of 2005, Allawi was easily trounced by a coalition of Shi'ite religious parties. Nor did he fare much better in the first full general election, in 2006. He then went into something of a funk. Even though he was an elected member of parliament, he showed no interest in playing a constructive role in opposition. Indeed, he was rarely in Baghdad at all, spending most of his time in Jordan and other Arab states. When I asked him about this in 2007, he cited concerns about his security...
...effectively without making alliances across traditional fault lines. The big parties put forward diverse coalitions preaching national unity, even if each retained a core identity well known to voters: Maliki's State of Law coalition ran on a law-and-order platform but drew primarily from a moderate Shi'ite base; Allawi's Iraqiya ran on a similar platform but ran strongest among Sunnis. But even if Iraq's politicians pretended to have outgrown identity politics, voters either didn't get the memo or saw through the spin, and voted largely by ethnicity and sect. Allawi won in majority Sunni...
...Maliki took a risk by separating himself from the Shi'ite Iraqi National Alliance (INA) that had propelled him to power, but struggled nonetheless to present himself as a truly national figure. While he had cracked down hard against terrorism and militias, especially the radical Shi'ite followers of Moqtada al Sadr, his support for a government de-Ba'athification committee that banned 500 parliamentary candidates - including many key Sunni politicians - a few weeks before the election appears to have helped fuel Sunni suspicion that he harbored a sectarian agenda. Maliki's troubles have been a boon to the Sadrists...