Word: shields
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...will Rummy's gambit pay off? Missile-shield backers criticized the Clinton Administration for lacking the political will to construct such a system. Their tone suggested that the project could be accomplished simply by ponying up the money and jawboning U.S. allies into accepting the inevitable. But the reality is that there is no shield at the ready. And because so many of the challenges associated with missile defense are technological--and may require years of trial-and-error development--simply pouring billions into such programs won't ensure success anytime soon...
Building a missile shield is a challenge on a par with building the atom bomb and putting a man on the moon. But those challenges were forged amid World War II and the cold war, when the White House, Congress and the public saw their achievement as high national priorities. There is no such consensus on national missile defense. Democrats are balking. Even the CIA's latest threat analysis says the most likely threats are not incoming missiles but rather such portable weapons of mass destruction as truck and suitcase bombs...
...officials suggest that the only logical way around China's opposition is for Washington and Beijing to agree, at least tacitly, to allow China to have enough nukes to trump whatever missile shield the U.S. deploys. That won't endear Bush and Rumsfeld to G.O.P. conservatives, but Washington insists the shield is not aimed at China anyway. "They may even double the number" of their missiles aimed at the U.S., Powell told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Other government arms experts believe a U.S. missile shield could trigger a tenfold increase in Chinese missiles aimed at the U.S. China...
...Bush Administration coddled the European allies in the days leading up to last week's speech, sharing its content and having Bush phone leaders with sneak previews. The allies appreciated the vagueness of the speech because it hinted that they may be able to influence the shield's final shape. The key to Europe's opposition is the lack of an ABM Treaty successor. If the ABM pact collapses, it must be replaced "only by better ones or more effective ones," German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer said after Bush's speech. "We don't want there...
Overseas concerns may influence just what layers Bush decides to deploy. The land-based plan is the selfish option. Even when expanded to two sites--Alaska and North Dakota, under current plans--the shield would protect only the U.S. and Canada. That would be particularly grating to nations like Britain and Denmark. After all, Washington wants them to permit the U.S. to make modifications to radar on their territory that is required to protect the U.S.--but not them--from missile attack...