Word: shiller
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Dates: during 2000-2009
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...SHILLER I didn't say "terrible crash." That is one plausible scenario, but other plausible scenarios are that [the Dow] will go up for a while and then just kind of hover for many years and give a low return. My book uses a 10-year horizon, which is viewed as the really long term. Ten to 20 years, it looks like we will have poor runs, maybe in the negative for 20 years--there is a good chance of that. In periods of high P/Es [price-to-earnings ratios, a measure of how expensive stocks are], stocks have done...
...SHILLER Not necessarily, not with the P/E ratio. You are suggesting there is some spurious--some fallacy in that. There isn't a fallacy here. I look at past historical periods when we had similar leveling, and you know, what comes to mind is 1929. We have had a tripling of the stock market to a record high level in the past five years, and there is only one other time when that has happened, which was '24 to '29. So history doesn't encourage me to think people have suddenly learned something...
...SHILLER We agree on that...
...SHILLER People believe stocks are safe. But I don't think this represents learning. It suggests this is what we call a speculative bubble. When stock prices go up--and they have been consistently for a while--people get a feeling that they must go up. So to me it is very clear what has been happening in recent years. It is not like people have just taken a course in economics and were impressed with the data. That is not what happened. We have seen so many cases in history of speculative bubbles. And we should learn...
...SHILLER See, [your] book title, if you look at it, it says, The New Strategy for Profiting from the Coming Rise in the Stock Market. You are selling books by telling people the risk premium is going to go to zero in three to five years. And you present no evidence for that...