Word: shiller
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Dates: during 2000-2009
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Economist Robert Shiller has a new book out. You'll be thrilled to learn that it doesn't contain any warnings about a looming market crash. Well, unless you count that bit about the "train of catastrophes" that might ensue if current efforts to stabilize the financial system fail. But that's not really a prediction...
Considering the Yale professor's recent publishing history, this is quite a relief. In March 2000, as stock prices soared to record levels, Shiller released his first general-audience book. Titled Irrational Exuberance, a phrase borrowed from a 1996 Alan Greenspan speech, it made the case that stock-market investors tend to go mad every few years--and that they were at the time in the grips of perhaps their worst psychotic episode ever...
That month, stock prices started to fall. The slide continued for 2 1/2 years. Then, for the second edition of Irrational Exuberance, published in February 2005, Shiller added a chapter on real estate. His argument: House prices had followed the stock market into a flight of fancy that was bound to end badly...
...timing of that market call wasn't quite as spot-on as that of March 2000. But it was close. According to the S&P/Case-Shiller indexes devised by Shiller and Wellesley College's Karl Case, the rise in house prices slowed in the latter half of 2005, then headed south in summer...
...know the rest of that story. House prices are still falling, and Shiller has attained a remarkable status in financial circles. He's the guy who called the past two busts, a hero to market bears everywhere, a fixture on CNBC and in the nation's financial pages...