Word: shiller
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Dates: during 2000-2009
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...that's happened only at a few off-the-beaten-track colleges. But mainstream economists, who had long dismissed market cycles as nonsense, have begun to come around at least a little. Yale's Robert Shiller describes market booms and busts as the product of fashion and animal spirits. A trio of academics revisited a famous 1934 paper that debunked the predictions of Dow theorist Hamilton and found that, adjusted for risk, Hamilton's predictions beat the market. MIT's Andrew Lo, a top finance scholar, has made technical analysis one of his main research topics. So maybe there...
...Campbell avoids stocks—not his expertise, he says—and focuses on less risky assets. His conservative strategy dates back to the mid-90s, when he says he and his Yale adviser Robert J. Shiller predicted that the booming market would cool...
...rally came after certain housing data, such as housing starts, home sales and the Case-Shiller home price index, started to show signs of month-over-month improvement for the first time since 2006 and homebuilders reported fewer cancellations and write-downs. Also, the federal tax credit for first-time buyers contributed to the improved demand for builders that make entry-level homes...
...This is good news for sure, but the data don't come without caveats. First of all, as economist Robert Shiller has pointed out, the index that bears his name has shown signs of turning a corner in the past. In early 2008, the rate of monthly home-price declines started dropping (that is, the housing situation looked to be moving from really bad to less bad). That momentum didn't stick, though, owing to the broader economic downturn. This time around, a first-time homebuyer tax credit is giving a huge boost to the market - nearly a third...
...Furthermore, just because house prices overall may be rebounding, that doesn't mean everyone benefits. Looking at the Case-Shiller data broken down by house price makes clear that the high end of the housing market is still in trouble. For low- and mid-tier houses - roughly, those costing less than $430,000 - prices in June rose between 2.3% and 2.6%. For more-expensive houses, prices nudged up just...