Word: shiller
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...think. At least advertising will become more interesting, predicts Jay Chiat, who made his name with groundbreaking ads for Apple and Nike. Business editor Bill Saporito, who oversaw half this package, mediated a sometimes testy debate about whether the Dow will ever hit 50,000. On one side: Robert Shiller, author of the just published Irrational Exuberance. On the other side: Kevin Hassett and James Glassman, who made a splash last year with their book...
...totally logical, say economist Kevin Hassett and journalist James Glassman, who argue in Dow 36,000 that stocks are both safe and undervalued. Not so fast, says Yale economist Robert Shiller, whose Irrational Exuberance says the market is headed for decades of trouble. The two sides had it out in a TIME debate...
...SHILLER I didn't say "terrible crash." That is one plausible scenario, but other plausible scenarios are that [the Dow] will go up for a while and then just kind of hover for many years and give a low return. My book uses a 10-year horizon, which is viewed as the really long term. Ten to 20 years, it looks like we will have poor runs, maybe in the negative for 20 years--there is a good chance of that. In periods of high P/Es [price-to-earnings ratios, a measure of how expensive stocks are], stocks have done...
...SHILLER Not necessarily, not with the P/E ratio. You are suggesting there is some spurious--some fallacy in that. There isn't a fallacy here. I look at past historical periods when we had similar leveling, and you know, what comes to mind is 1929. We have had a tripling of the stock market to a record high level in the past five years, and there is only one other time when that has happened, which was '24 to '29. So history doesn't encourage me to think people have suddenly learned something...
...value valuators are stirring again. The Graham and Dodd model is still relevant, and the siren song of momentum investing sounds like something heard before. "We had a similar problem in 1929," says Yale economist Robert Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance, which explores the perils of the present market. "People said then that the old standards for valuing stocks were irrelevant because we were in a new economic...