Word: shiller
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...This is good news for sure, but the data don't come without caveats. First of all, as economist Robert Shiller has pointed out, the index that bears his name has shown signs of turning a corner in the past. In early 2008, the rate of monthly home-price declines started dropping (that is, the housing situation looked to be moving from really bad to less bad). That momentum didn't stick, though, owing to the broader economic downturn. This time around, a first-time homebuyer tax credit is giving a huge boost to the market - nearly a third...
...Furthermore, just because house prices overall may be rebounding, that doesn't mean everyone benefits. Looking at the Case-Shiller data broken down by house price makes clear that the high end of the housing market is still in trouble. For low- and mid-tier houses - roughly, those costing less than $430,000 - prices in June rose between 2.3% and 2.6%. For more-expensive houses, prices nudged up just...
Just as Americans did with their houses, casino owners borrowed way too much money to build hotels that were way too big. Economists like Yale's Robert Shiller have warned that the next big wave of failures in the U.S. recession will be in commercial real estate - and once again, Las Vegas is headlining. Even worse, the bottom fell out as casino owners were building, so a number of them couldn't replace construction loans with the financing that was once readily available to complete and open hotel-condo-casino projects. Deutsche Bank foreclosed on the $3.9 billion Cosmopolitan Hotel...
...excited. Once you take into account that houses sell for more money in the spring, that increase in the Case-Shiller data disappears - and Moody's Economy.com is still forecasting an additional 11% drop in home prices nationally...
...certainly better for economic activity to be increasing rather than decreasing, but the focus on whether the economy is in recession or not can miss a lot. "I don't care about what the dating committee says. I'm concerned about longer-term issues," says Yale economist Robert Shiller. "We are in for an extended period of subnormal economic growth." Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive officer of bond-investing giant Pimco, has popularized a catchier if less informative phrase for what we're in for: "the new normal...