Word: shiningly
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Eliminate both Secrets & Lies, inexplicably nominated since it was shot without a script, and Shine, since biography seldom wins awards for originality. After that it's a toss-up. Fargo got more recognition for its visuals and its characters than for its script, but that's where it all started. Jerry Maguire dared not only to turn a star vehicle into an actual character piece but also to create several likable, believable men and women (and it gave America "Show me the money!") John Sayles's Lone Star was overlooked in every other category, but its dense novelistic structure makes...
Nominees: Joel Coen, Fargo; Milos Forman, The People vs. Larry Flynt; Scott Hicks, Shine; Mike Leigh, Secrets & Lies; Anthony Minghella, The English Patient...
Nominees: The English Patient, Fargo, Jerry Maguire, Secrets Lies and Shine...
...Lies and Fargo are not everyone's cup of tea, but those who like them love them. Jerry Maguire would normally be D.O.A. without a director nod, but don't underestimate the Marisa Tomei factor: studio output in a field of itchy new-wavism can pull off big surprises. Shine is easily the least accomplished film, but so were Forrest Gump and Rain Man. Oscar voters like their sappy, stunted geniuses wherever they can get them. Tough call...
...Will Win: Realistically, Secrets Lies lost the minute an actress changed her tampon onscreen. Likewise, Fargo will never survive its woodchipper finale. Even though Patient once seemed poised to dominate (and it won the Golden Globe), I'm seeing a tough three-way fight with Shine and Jerry Maguire. Still, with nominations in the most categories, Patient seems to have the broadest-based support in the homestretch...