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...midst of the first oil shock in the modern era of globalization. In today's U.S.-centric world, that spells unusual vulnerability. If higher oil prices take a toll on the over-extended American consumer, nations that rely on exports to the U.S. as major sources of growth will be hurt. That puts Asia right in the crosshairs of the energy shock...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: A Price to Pay | 8/29/2005 | See Source »

...slow markedly if oil prices just stay at about $60 a barrel. This is true for several reasons. First, U.S. households have precious little flexibility in their budgets. They have drawn their personal average savings rate down to zero?far below the 9.5% average during the two oil shocks of the 1970s and the 7% rate during the shock just prior to the Gulf War in 1991. Today, the only backstop for most consumers is the transitory wealth created by America's increasingly precarious housing bubble...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: A Price to Pay | 8/29/2005 | See Source »

...become excessive?setting the stage for America's most severe consumer-led recessions. A similar overhang is evident today: spending for consumer durables and residential construction has averaged 14.3% of America's GDP over the past year. That's virtually identical to levels reached just before the energy-shock-induced consumption collapses...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: A Price to Pay | 8/29/2005 | See Source »

...third of China's total exports go to the U.S. That means one of China's largest and most dynamic sectors is very much a levered play on the staying power of the American consumer. That's a tough place to be for any economy during an energy shock?even China...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: A Price to Pay | 8/29/2005 | See Source »

Equally controversial plans could move beyond mere talk in other Western cities. A multiyear drought, which eased only this year, dropped water levels in the Colorado River's vast reservoirs to historic lows, raising the specter of involuntary rationing. It was a shock that rattled water managers in numerous states, causing Denver, for example, to eye the headwaters of the Gunnison River, clear across the Continental Divide, and Los Angeles to consider exploiting a groundwater field in the Mojave Desert. These and other communities will thus be watching Las Vegas closely, as will environmentalists who question, among other things...

Author: /time Magazine | Title: Western Water Wars | 8/28/2005 | See Source »

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