Word: shwe
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...inner workings of Burma's repressive military government are a puzzle on par with that other hermit government, North Korea. It's a measure of the unfathomability that after last week's surprise leadership reshuffle, in which strongman General Than Shwe was replaced as Prime Minister by head of military intelligence General Khin Nyunt, Burma-watchers were convinced that a major change had taken place. What they couldn't tell was whether it was for better or worse...
...even if the new Prime Minister evolves as the Dr. Jekyll of Burma, he's surrounded by plenty of Mr. Hydes. Than Shwe is still chairman of the powerful military-controlled State Peace and Development Council (SPCD) and commander-in-chief of the armed forces; he ordered Suu Kyi's most recent arrest. More ominous: the Orwellian-sounding position of Secretary One in the SPCD, a top post vacated by Khin Nyunt last week, was given to Soe Win, a known hard-liner. A vital piece of the puzzle is missing, though: Khin Nyunt may be Prime Minister...
...engage the ruling generals in dialogue. His softly-softly approach seemed to yield results. A year ago, he brokered the release of democracy activist Aung San Suu Kyi after 19 months of house arrest and secured what he thought was a firm commitment from junta boss General Than Shwe to negotiate with her about the country's political future. But last Saturday, Razali was back to square one, struggling once again to persuade the generals to release Suu Kyi after they stashed her in what they euphemistically called "protective custody." As TIME went to press, Razali was still being denied...
...reckoned she was a spent force after years of suppression. They dreamed too that her freedom would lead to an economic windfall, with the U.S. and the European Union lifting sanctions, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund extending rich loans and foreigners flocking to invest in Burma. "Than Shwe thought there would be rewards just for releasing her," says David Steinberg, a Burma expert at Georgetown University. Instead, Western nations kept calling for the freedom of 1,300 political prisoners and for democratic reforms that never came. Meanwhile, Suu Kyi drew unnervingly large crowds on trips into Burma...
...however, Than Shwe is a military man, and that's where his chief loyalty lies. He still firmly believes the army is best suited to rule Burma and its fractious ethnic groups. Even some diplomats agree a transition to a freer society will have to be slow and gradual as the country has no democratic institutions. But the struggle to build them may well begin with this first thaw between two once implacable foes?and when Aung San Suu Kyi takes those first steps toward freedom...