Word: shying
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...most immediate flash point in tensions between Iran and its Arab neighbors is Yemen, one of the regions poorest and most unstable countries, where Shi'ite Houthi rebels in the north launched attacks in neighboring Saudi Arabia last month, sparking an air strike by Saudi jets on Houthi territory. U.S. officials say they have no proof that Iran is involved in the Yemen conflict, but deeply suspicious gulf states, including Yemen, are sure Tehran is stoking a potentially explosive war. Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh told TIME last month that the rebels "want to follow the system of Iran...
...addition, the Islamic month of Muharram begins on Dec. 18 this year, kicking off 10 days of ceremonies in Shi'ite Islam that culminate on the holy day of Ashura, when the martyrdom of Hussain, grandson of the Prophet Muhammad, is mourned. Public events occur in every city, town and village in Iran, and as with other religious holidays that have occurred since June, the opposition is likely to encourage supporters to come out and defy the regime. To prevent this, the conservatives who control the government may try to portray the protesters as desecraters of the legacy of Khomeini...
...Obama's narrower struggle against al-Qaeda, however, a cold war with Tehran makes little sense. For all its nastiness, the Iranian regime doesn't direct its terrorism against the U.S. And Iran's Shi'ite theocrats have a mostly hostile relationship with the anti-Shi'ite theocrats of al-Qaeda. In both Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran has caused trouble for the U.S. largely out of fear that if the U.S. prevails in those countries, Iran will be next. But the Obama Administration seems to believe that if the U.S. can convince Iran's regime that it's not next...
...Iran experts say Tehran's broad interests in Afghanistan are the same as Washington's. The Islamic Republic doesn't want to see a return to chaos on its eastern flank, which would probably lead to a massive refugee influx. As a Shi'ite state, it would see the return to power of militant Sunni hard-liners as a setback. And Iran, which faces a drug-addiction problem of alarming proportions, shares the U.S. desire to curtail Afghanistan's opium trade. If anything, "Tehran stands to lose much more than Washington if Afghanistan reverts back to an al-Qaeda-infested...
...Tehran certainly has the tools to make trouble. The Quds Force, an élite unit of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, was able to stir up sectarian tension in Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein by helping arm and finance the Shi'ite militias that first fought against the U.S.-led coalition and then conducting a campaign of violence against Sunni Iraqis. The commander of the Quds Force, Brigadier General Qassem Suleimani, is also credited with reining in the Shi'ite militias in 2007 - a key factor in helping the U.S. surge strategy succeed...