Word: silver
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Dates: during 1990-1999
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Buffett's silver spree caught almost everyone off guard. After all, the man made his personal billions--$25 billion at last count--by buying and holding undervalued stocks. But silver doesn't even pay a dividend and, worse, costs money to store. So why on earth did Buffett use Berkshire to acquire 4,000 tons of silver--a cache weighing more than 10 Boeing 747s--at a cost of $650 million between July 25 and Jan. 12? Until then, Buffett hadn't owned an ounce in 30 years...
...starters, silver prices were down last summer. That made the metal a value play, something Buffett is good at. In fact, Buffett says in a statement that he saw a huge imbalance between the amount of silver available and the demand for it to make things like jewelry, photographic supplies, electronic components, mirrors and batteries. So he began buying because "equilibrium between supply and demand was only likely to be established by a somewhat higher price." Translation: It looked like a good deal...
...meeting last year, Buffett warned that the stock market was presenting few bargains and that investors should expect dramatically lower returns. Just last fall he bought $2 billion of--gasp!--long-term Treasury bonds, an investment that betrays some concern about stocks. Now he turns around and buys enough silver to make the Hunts jealous. Could it be that Buffett has soured on the stock market...
...Warren Buffett Way and manager of the Focus Trust, a stock fund that tries to mimic Buffett's style. "You shouldn't take this as a cue to be seduced into commodities, and don't misunderstand this as a big move out of stocks," Hagstrom says. Indeed, the silver and T-bonds, even after recent run-ups in price, account for less than 10% of Berkshire's $34 billion portfolio...
...Buffett has been moving to protect against both risks. The T-bonds he bought last fall give him a hedge against deflation. Their value would soar if the economy soured and knocked down interest rates. The silver he just picked up gives him a hedge on the other side. The metal would gain value along with other commodities in a heated economy that raised inflation and interest rates. But small investors should be wary of following Buffett into silver lest he decide to take his profits and run. "How long will this last?" asks Moore of Flemings Global. "Buffett...