Word: simonizers
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Dates: during 1980-1989
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...buys, though Bush has carefully hoarded his ammunition for the climactic final days. The ads currently running on Iowa TV are revealing, particularly for what they say ! about each candidate's strategy as the campaign moves into the final weeks. Confidence is the implicit message conveyed by Dole and Simon: their commercials are vague and thematic, presumably designed to do little more than solidify inchoate support. Robertson has perfected a different kind of soft sell, speaking directly into the camera without props or backdrop, glossing over his TV-preacher past and ending with the soothing words, "I'm not asking...
...conventional Democratic contenders in Iowa -- Simon, Dukakis, Gephardt and Babbitt -- have been stuck on a treadmill devoid of any themes that arouse half the curiosity of Gary Hart's dramatic return from exile. Simon seems the beneficiary of this placid status quo, while Dukakis just drifts, perhaps from New-Hampshire-is-next overconfidence. But Babbitt and Gephardt, in different ways, have at last seized on what they believe is a cutting issue in Iowa: populism...
Both Babbitt and Gephardt have to take daring gambles, since their underfunded and overextended campaigns simply cannot afford weak third- or fourth-place finishes. How they must envy Dukakis, who has raised $11 million and will go on to New Hampshire with a home-field advantage. Simon, who has demonstrated surprising staying power, is confronted with the same question as Dole: If not Iowa, where? Conversely, a Simon victory could confound the race. As University of New Hampshire Political Scientist David Moore argues, "The momentum associated with the Iowa results could very well mean victory for Simon and Dole...
...have a "generally unfavorable" impression of Hart. A negative rating that high is crippling. Jesse Jackson, who also has large negatives (41% nationally, 37% in Iowa), found that out last month when Hart's return to the contest dumped him from first place. In this fast-forward atmosphere, Paul Simon is prospering, at least for the moment, while Michael Dukakis is losing traction. Nationally, Simon rose from fourth place in December (7%) to third place this month (13%), changing places with Dukakis (from 14% down...
Those changes are marginal, but in Iowa, Simon seems now to have a chance to move ahead. Among Democrats who say they will attend caucuses, he is second. However, when the sample is narrowed further to 213 Democrats who have attended a caucus in the past, Simon rises to the top. He is the favorite of 26% in this group, with Hart second (18%), Dukakis third (17%) and Richard Gephardt fourth (14%). So the Democrats, even more than the Republicans, will be puzzling the question of which partisans in this independent-minded state might actually turn out on caucus night...