Word: sistani
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...Allawi's best bet would be to draw the Kurds into his own bloc. But the Kurds, secular and seperatist, they are hardly natural allies for the moderate Islamist-nationalist UIA list assembled under the auspices of Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani. Still, they may see the Sistani list as a more viable government, if they can strike a deal that gives the Shiites the power they seek in Baghdad in exchange for de facto Kurdish independence in the northern provinces - largely at the expense of Sunni Arabs and ethnic Turkmen in Kirkuk and other contested areas. Ultimately, however, the Kurds...
...secular groups headed by Allawi. The rules of the game give Allawi openings to maneuver for power even if his opponents win a clear majority of the vote and the seats in the National Assembly. But Shiite leaders - none more so than Grand Ayatollah Sistani himself - have long questioned some of the provisions of Bremer's transitional constitution, the TAL, and the right of Americans to set the rules for Iraqi democracy. Sistani aide Ahmad al-Safi reiterated this week in an interview with al-Diyar television that many Shiites believe the TAL is "unfair" and "does not have legitimacy...
...Sistani's objections to the TAL are that it offers minorities veto power over majority decisions, for example in allowing a two-thirds no-vote on a new constitution in any three of Iraq's 18 provinces to strike it down. And it's not hard to envisage a situation where if the provisions of the U.S.-bequeathed law are used to deny the Shiites the majority power they believe they won in a democratic election, Shiite opposition to the TAL - and to the influence, even the continued presence of the U.S. in Iraq - would harden...
...Most reporting from polling stations suggests that the big winners, as expected, will be the Shiite-dominated United Iraqi Alliance, backed by Sistani. But the extent of its dominance remains to be seen. There were indications in the weeks preceding the election that the coalition of Prime Minister Iyad Allawi was reeling in the UIA's lead, drawing support not only from a middle class secular constituency but also from Shiites wary of giving clerics political authority. Allawi may have been helped by what appears to have been a de facto boycott by supporters of the radical Shiite cleric Moqtada...
...getting the U.S. out is one point of consensus between the radical Sunni Arab insurgents and the moderate Shiite Arab Islamists that look set to emerge with the largest share of Sunday?s vote, they also share a common hostility to Kurdish secessionism. Grand Ayatollah Sistani has made no secret of his hostility to the provisions of the Transitional Administrative Law - the interim constitution crafted under U.S. direction - that gives the Kurds an effective veto over a new constitution. The Kurd-Arab distinction may yet prove as powerful a destabilizing factor as the Sunni-Shiite one in the months ahead...