Word: sistani
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...within the Shiite community have receded, not only because the clashes that began last week saw both sides accuse the other of violating the June cease-fire that brought the previous battle in the city to an end, but also because the supreme Shiite clerical authority, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, who played a key mediating role last time around, is currently in London for heart treatment...
...Challenge: The Shi'ite mainstream will be doing its utmost to see that elections actually take place in January, finally giving the Shi'ites an influence commensurate with their numbers over Iraq's destiny. They're likely to resist any effort to postpone a poll, particularly because Sistani and the parties close to him are under pressure among ordinary Shi'ites as a result of the challenge of the more radical element led by Moqtada Sadr. If elections are held on schedule, he'll feel his caution was vindicated. If there's a delay, Sistani will be caught between pressure...
...leader is Moqtada Sadr, whose support base in the Shi'ite urban slums has been organized in the Mehdi militia, which has been skirmishing with Coalition troops since the U.S. first tried to arrest Sadr in April on murder charges. While Moqtada lacks the clerical status to compete with Sistani in the religious sphere, he is first and foremost a politician - while purporting to accept Sistani's leadership in the spiritual sphere, Moqtada is plainly competing with the political parties (SCIRI and Dawa) closest to Sistani, and doing rather well in that race right...
...only wants the Shi'ites to dominate in the new political order in Iraq; he plans to be the dominant voice among the Shi'ites - and has skillfully ridden the wave of anti-American anger triggered by U.S. efforts against him to his own advantage. Indeed, the fact that Sistani held a meeting with Moqtada, whom he would previously have dismissed as an upstart rabble-rouser, to help bring peace to Najaf is a sign that the young imam's stature has grown as a result of his battle with the Americans. Sadr's game plan has been to rally...
...body politic, and he now appears to be consolidating that standing by proclaiming himself ready to work with the new government in pursuit of elections. His future depends on his ability to maintain and consolidate his support by acting as much as possible in concert with Sistani and the mainstream. But it's a safe bet that he'll be the first and loudest among the Shi'ites crying foul in the event of any changes to the election schedule...