Word: slow
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...lesson this time around with Global Alpha is the same as it was with LTCM. But we seem to be slow on the uptake. These funds hired the best and the brightest, yet they became embroiled in crises largely of their own making. If it could happen to them, it will happen again. And we'll all share in the consequences. Again...
...hand. China has recorded four straight years of double-digit economic growth, and 2007 will likely be the fifth: first-quarter GDP expanded by 11.1%. At a moment when the rest of the world fears roiling credit markets might reduce growth, China faces a different challenge: how to slow its economic locomotive before it jumps the tracks...
...would be to allow China's currency to rise more swiftly in value. That would reduce the price of imported goods; it would also relieve some pressure Beijing is getting from U.S. Congressmen, who accuse China of manipulating its currency for trade advantage. Allowing the renminbi to rise might slow China's export-driven growth a bit, at least in the near term, but that may be a price worth paying. The question for Beijing is: will the country absorb a little pain now - or a lot later...
Third, it's likely that commercial and investment banks will have to impose tighter credit standards on borrowers, and possibly even start pulling out of deals that are already under way. As credit becomes more expensive, capital spending will slow and companies will have less money available to fund share buybacks - a key prop for the equity markets. These factors, along with weakening consumer and business confidence, could tip an already stalling U.S. economy into recession...
...houses don't trade like stocks, so when it comes to correcting the system when it gets out of whack, we're talking years, not weeks. "Real estate," says housing economist Thomas Lawler, "is a slow, tedious process." In July, after the two Bear Stearns hedge funds first ran into trouble, bond guru Bill Gross of Pimco wrote a foreboding investment outlook, pointing out that hedge funds tied up in trading are the top layer of the problem, not the root. That can be demonstrated in the Mile High City and, as Gross wrote, "in the Summerlin suburbs...