Word: slowdown
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...crisis is passing a rather modest turning point. At least it has stopped getting worse, and it may be contained in Asia rather than spread to other regions of the globe. As one happy result, odds favor the U.S. economy's getting through 1999 with nothing worse than a slowdown in growth--not the recession very recently feared...
...services cheaper in other countries and imports more expensive here. But those effects might not be felt for three or four years--certainly not in 1999. Next year, members of the TIME board say, the worsening deficits will exert enough drag on the U.S. economy to produce, finally, the slowdown so long forecast...
Reaser does expect a slowdown in 1999, to a growth rate between 2% and 2.5%--probably closer to the higher figure. But she sees only a 20% chance of recession, vs. the fifty-fifty odds some economists were quoting as recently as September. She expects a leveling off in housing and a decline in nonresidential construction, as well as "a widening of the trade gap," but thinks they will be largely offset by further gains in consumer spending, business investment in information technology and "some increase in government spending." Profits of companies whose stocks are included in the Standard & Poor...
...problem is that the U.S. deficit is maintained by borrowing. "It can't be sustained in the long term because at some point foreign lenders will expect higher interest rates to keep on financing it," says Baumohl. "That would mean a slowdown of the U.S. economy." Unless Asia begins to recover, rising deficits will also amplify calls for protectionism in the U.S. And that, says Baumohl, "would set the world economy on the path toward another global depression...
...Europe is headed for an economic slowdown this spring -- that?s why the 11 euro-joining central banks made their last act a boldly coordinated interest rate cut that brought rates across the zone to 3 percent. England needs to follow suit or risk falling behind its trading partners -- high interest rates (in relation to its neighbors) would prop up the pound and slow down England?s exports, spelling recession for sure. England?s disdain for the euro pact means there will be a pound sterling next year. But if the Bank of England continues to follow the euro-zone...