Word: slowdown
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...rates seven times since February 1994. Most economists thought the hikes could reduce growth to a more sustainable 2% to 3% this year and thereby create a "soft landing" that would forestall inflation. But some forecasters now fear that a far more painful pullback could be at hand. "The slowdown is very clear and quite dramatic," says Laurence Meyer, an economic consultant in St. Louis, Missouri. "The question now is whether all this is a prelude to a recession...
...York City investment firm. "Most of the growth in this business cycle is behind us. Fed policy will have an important bearing on how the economy pans out the rest of the year." Concurs Robert Brusca, chief economist for Nikko Securities: "It looks, smells and tastes like a slowdown. Common sense should reinforce this view...
Growing inventories have plagued retailers too since they stocked up in anticipation of a strong Christmas season. December sales fell 0.1% from the level of November, even though stores slashed prices to lure shoppers. "The most impressive evidence of a slowdown in the economy is the weakness in retail sales," says Lacy Hunt, chief economist for HSBC Securities. "Retailers are terribly overstocked despite the massive discounting." That is partly because rising interest rates have been making it more costly for already overburdened consumers to borrow and spend. Americans took out a hefty $120 billion in new loans last year, increasing...
...were closed or crippled. The plants assemble cars on which GM is banking heavily, such as the Chevy Lumina and Pontiac Firebird, as well as the popular Chevy Suburban and Blazer sports utility vehicles, says TIME Detroit bureau chief William McWhirter. If the strike continues into next week, the slowdown will spread to Chrysler and Ford -- further putting pressure on GM to settle the strike. But McWhirter does not expect it to go that far. "Both sides are negotiating in good faith," McWhirter says. "This is not going to be the match that lights up a huge labor confrontation...
...panel members predicted that exports of everything from cars to computers will help keep U.S. jobs growing next year. That will be important to take up the slack created by the slowdown in housing construction as mortgage rates have climbed. The economists had little doubt, moreover, that foreigners are becoming very big buyers of American goods. "Most U.S. companies," said Jasinowski, "think their biggest growth opportunities are abroad...