Word: slowdown
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...slowdown is already undermining the credibility of the Bush Administration's first full-fledged budget, which calls for expenditures of $1.23 trillion in fiscal 1991. Budget Director Richard Darman was able to squeeze under the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings deficit target of $64 billion but only by using assumptions that call for a quick rebound in economic growth, coupled with a rapid descent of interest rates. Many economists view that combination as highly implausible. While the Administration predicts economic growth of 2.6% in 1990 and 3.3% in 1991, the blue-chip survey of 51 economists puts the figures...
...past, Congress is likely to take the latter course, joining the Executive Branch in dodging its fiscal responsibility. This year the economy's weakness may provide the excuse for postponing action on the deficit, since spending cuts could aggravate the slowdown. Unfortunately, a decade of annual budget deficits of more than $100 billion has shifted the burden of controlling the economy almost completely to the Federal Reserve Board. "The problem is that we have only monetary policy to rely on," says Lyle Gramley, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association and a former Fed governor. "It would be wonderful...
While American borrowers could afford to pay a hefty premium to finance the U.S. deficit during good times, the country will have a difficult time supporting its debt habit during a slowdown. Says Karin Lissakers, a professor of international affairs at Columbia University: "Let's face it, like any country that has gone deeply into debt, the U.S. has lost its autonomy in economic affairs...
Well then, comes the natural response, more and tougher sanctions are needed. That too is open to question. A major slowdown in South Africa could halt the growth of the skilled black work force and the development of black economic power, which have already caused irreversible changes in the apartheid system -- legalization of black unions, abolition of the internal pass laws, legalization of some nonracial neighborhoods. These developments, more than sanctions, have helped change white thinking. And if broad new sanctions were to cut deeply into the South African economy, the government's probable response would be to abandon reform...
...beginning of this year, though, Herscu found himself in serious trouble. Hit by rising interest rates in Australia and declining retail sales in the U.S., the 61-year-old empire builder did not have enough cash to weather the slowdown. By August, Hooker's U.S. subsidiary filed for bankruptcy, and Herscu resigned as chief executive...