Word: slowdowns
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Dates: during 1970-1979
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...extent that blue-collar workers vote on the basis of Catholic or ethnic issues, Ford could benefit. In addition, he hopes to capitalize on the slowdown in inflation. But blue-collar voters seem more concerned about unemployment than inflation. Says Mike LaVelle, the Chicago Tribune's blue-collar columnist: "Jobs are really it. Carter doesn't have to do anything but keep pointing out the percentage of unemployed." Thus, the bread-and-butter worries created by the recession stand to produce more labor votes for Carter than all of the pleas of union leaders...
...profits staged a dazzling comeback from the depressed levels of the nation's worst postwar recession. Then, as many experts predicted, business from April through June tapered off to a more sustainable pace. Yet the second-quarter earnings reports now flowing from company headquarters show that despite the slowdown, corporations continued to show solid profit gains. Moreover, according to most economists, earnings will go on rising smartly at least throughout the rest of the year...
...comparison is somewhat distorted: first-quarter earnings in 1975 were well below those of the succeeding quarters. Actually, when the first and second quarters of this year are compared, profits are virtually unchanged after seasonal adjustments -even though earnings in the April-June period were hindered by a slowdown in the rate of expansion of the nation's output of goods and services...
...most economists are not unduly concerned by the slowdown. They continue to prediet a 6% increase in real G.N.P. (not counting inflation) for the remainder of this year and a reduction in the level of joblessness to 7%. Even so, growth in second-half profits is likely to slow down. One reason for the strong first-half showing is that companies were able to raise prices faster than their labor costs went up, thus improving profit margins. That advantage will diminish in the months ahead as the economy picks up momentum and industry comes closer to using its full capacity...
...David Grove, a member of TIME Board of Economists, are not completely convinced. In Grove's view, many companies are still operating well below capacity and do not see the need for large amounts of new plant and equipment in the near future. Moreover, Grove believes that the slowdown in the economy has dimmed prospects for consumer spending, expanded personal income and inventory investment next year. Thus businessmen will probably remain cautious. If Grove is right, the widespread conviction that a full-blown expansion is now in the bag could well prove illusory...