Word: slowdowns
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Dates: during 2000-2009
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...NASDAQ has of late been the economy's best leading indicator - the crash of spring 2000 begets the economic slowdown of fall 2000, for example - and the tech "wealth effect" has also become the main engine by which Alan Greenspan gets rate-cut money into people's pockets before the cuts actually have their full effect on the economy...
...course Japan's economy is still in the tank (a Monday drop in the Nikkei to 20-year lows - yes, that's right, 20-year lows - started Wall Street off in a bad mood), and a global slowdown is still the hot new topic on pessimists' lips. Corporate earnings are still bad and getting worse, though it's hard to imagine how anybody could still be shocked and disappointed when they're told a company's profits are suffering in the current economic correction. And while unemployment is still well-contained, layoffs are still part and parcel of each...
Where does that leave you? Dollar-cost averaging, fully funding your 401(k) and staying diversified, one hopes. There's no telling when things will turn up. My guess is not real soon, given that we're in a business-spending slowdown and the most popular sector, tech, has been creamed. But you want to be invested when the mood shifts. Otherwise all this pain will have been for nothing...
Myth number three: The New Economy was all a sham, a Ponzi scheme designed to dupe the average American. This myth is a little bit more complex. Some pundits, so naive they should never have been given a bully pulpit, have pointed to the recent slowdown as proof that the New Economy was a ruse. They point to the equally naive proponents of all the New Economy hype who promised an end to the business cycle, growth and prosperity forever and a stock market that never went down...
...Greenspan spent the rest of the morning dodging questions from House members on the Bush tax cut, and at one point had to sit still while Barney Frank demanded an explanation of why Greenspan had "intensified" the current slowdown with that half-percent hike in May 2000. (Greenspan launched into an answer, but Frank had already used up most of the five-minute limit, drunk on his own chutzpah. Greenspan offered to discuss it with him later...