Word: slowdowns
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Dates: during 2000-2009
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...Management and Budget, in a report last week, was careful to trace to the stock-market slide that started in March 2000. (Translation: Bill Clinton did it.) In truth, the lack of $46 billion of the missing $123 billion is attributable to lower general tax revenues because of the slowdown. "It's remarkable we have a surplus at all, given the yearlong slowdown," argues OMB director Mitch Daniels. The rest of the shortfall can be traced to Bush's military pay raise, the tax rebate and corporate-tax receipts that Bush delayed to make next year's figures rosier...
...global economy hasn't crashed just yet. But a worldwide slowdown is giving analysts everywhere a bad case of the jitters. The key reason: this, says Robert Hormats, vice chairman of Goldman Sachs International, is "the first synchronized downturn since the 1980s," when high interest rates squeezed the world economy like an orange. During the last U.S. recession, 10 years ago, Europe was in its post-cold war euphoria, while the Asian economies were the stuff of miracle. By the time a financial crisis declawed the Asian tigers in 1997-98, the U.S. economy was in the middle...
Though the Fed voiced concern about sagging corporate profits and the slowdown in capital spending, there are some encouraging signals. The index of leading economic indicators was up for the fourth month in a row in July. The country is still essentially at full employment, and manufacturing (excluding technology) is showing signs of stabilizing. Given all that, strategists such as Steve Young of Banc of America Capital Management have confidence the economy is in the "bottoming-out process." That bodes well for U.S. equities...
...Retailers, after getting burned by the slowdown?s front end last December and spending this year chasing customers with profit-raiding discounts, aren?t taking any chances that shoppers will last long enough to come through for them this time around. Many stores are frantically deferring orders and paring offerings in anticipation of an even worse Christmas shopping season than last year - perhaps the weakest since, well, the last recession. "I think the full effect of these layoff announcements will take effect in the second half," PricewaterhouseCoopers senior retail economist Frank Badillo told the Wall Street Journal. Leaving the American...
...just an appetizer for next year, when slowdown (it?s not going away, folks) digs even deeper into the surplus and Bush?s political shopping list gets even longer, and the midterms make things really interesting...