Word: slowdowns
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...February's Michigan numbers, which were revised up, I count this as the second straight rise in consumer confidence after several months' slide. It seems to suggest that perhaps the worst may be over in terms of consumer sentiment, which is critical to the length and breadth of this slowdown...
...will depend on consumers, and whether the slowdown has affected their summer travel plans. Between gasoline and jet fuel, if people are traveling in large numbers, that increase in demand - combined with production cuts - could push up prices over $30 again. And that's where it starts to be a real damper on the economy...
...other words, if the U.S. slowdown isn't as bad as OPEC expects, it could quickly get a lot worse...
...recent past, non-OPEC countries have been pretty cooperative in not taking up the slack that OPEC leaves. But Mexico also realizes that a severe U.S. slowdown is going to hit them very hard, and as they try to diversify their economy - not to mention keep up the good start Vincente Fox and George W. Bush have gotten off to - that's the last thing they want. So they might be expected to help out in a pinch...
...biggest foreign owner of U.S. Treasury bills. If falling Japanese stocks drag down the Japanese banks that - amazingly - use those very stocks as collateral, they might have to start selling. All those Treasuries hit the market, U.S. interest rates hit the roof - a familiar worry, but this year? Sayonara slowdown, hello recession...