Word: slowdowns
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...head again. The rushing tides of the new economy kept it submerged for almost a decade, but they could not drown it for good. It lives! Only it now looks like a pretty tame beast. A little slower growth in U.S. production, a little more inflation before the slowdown takes effect, a bit more unemployment, eventually, maybe...that's about the worst damage that the cycle is expected to inflict. Unless...
...Chairman Alan Greenspan has been raising interest rates for just short of a year to slow a runaway boom. Members of TIME's board differ considerably on how soon and how hard those rate hikes will bite. But all agree on two predictions: 1) there will indeed be a slowdown; 2) the chance that it will turn into a recession is, in Sinai's word, "zero." Diane Swonk, chief economist of Bank One and president of the National Association for Business Economics, declares, "I expect this expansion to last until 2004"--which is as far as she will predict...
...TIME senior economics reporter Bernard Baumohl doesn't see any signs that Greenspan got any more than he bargained for. "The markets are having a little panic about how much this slowdown will affect earnings," he said (although investors warmed up again in the afternoon when Greenspan announced that technology -- gasp! -- was good for productivity). "But right now, it doesn't look like any more than the soft landing, from 5 percent growth to about 3.5 percent, that the Fed has been trying to engineer." In fact, says Baumohl, there are some on the Fed's Open Market Committee...
When other computer companies struggled through a slowdown in the U.S. economy and fierce competition from the Japanese in the early 1980s, Grove bucked an industry trend and refused to fire his workers. Instead, he asked them to work harder: more hours, more efficiently and no extra pay. Not exactly Santa Claus--but it worked...
Even so, the economy's slowdown almost killed Intel and led Grove to develop his theory of "strategic inflection points (SIPs)." According to the philosophy, every company occasionally faces do-or-die moments...