Word: slowdowns
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...credit seems almost sure to win congressional approval. Once a supporter of the tax credit, Nixon changed his mind last month after surveys showed that corporate spending on new plant and equipment was heading for an inflationary 14% gain this year. Its immediate repeal is intended to make a slowdown in actual corporate spending mesh with the time next year when a lowered tax surcharge would give consumers more pocket money...
Businessmen are increasing their expansion plans for a variety of interwoven reasons. The momentum of 96 consecutive months of economic expansion leaves most executives confident about 1969, despite all the talk of a slowdown. Last week the Commerce Department reported that factory orders for durable goods-an important indicator of future economic activity-rose by $1 billion in February to a record level of $31 billion. Even a small decline in auto assemblies last month did not prevent industrial production from setting a new record for the fourth month in a row. Recovering from a January slump, personal income increased...
Whether the present mix of fiscal and monetary policies will bring the "gradual" economic slowdown that the Administration wants should be known in a few months. Most taxpayers will be painfully reminded in mid-April that not all of last year's 10% income tax surcharge was covered by their withholding taxes. The federal budget will soon shift to a slight surplus after three years of inflationary deficits. At this point, top Administration officials figure that present measures will begin to bring inflation under control-perhaps without another dose of higher interest rates...
Despite their heavy military budgets in recent years, Russian leaders, like their American counterparts, have good reason to hope for an arms slowdown. Soviet defense expenditures cannot be precisely audited because they are largely hidden. Nonetheless, it is generally believed that Moscow's recent defense spending has been roughly equivalent to Washington's military budget (after the $30-billion-a-year cost of Viet Nam is subtracted from the U.S. figure). Yet the Russian gross national product is only about half of the American G.N.P...
Other Policies. The price of any slowdown, if it comes, would be some job layoffs, with ghetto dwellers among the first to suffer. Though that prospect is filled with obvious political and social perils, the current jobless rate-a 15-year low of 3.3% in December and January-gives the Nixon Administration some room for maneuver. So does the fact that a number of companies are "stockpiling" workers because of the shortage of skills, and may be inclined to hang onto them as long as possible, even if that means some short-term loss of profits. The White House nonetheless...