Word: slowdowns
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...whether we're going to have a soft landing or a hard landing in the U.S. but how hard the landing is going to be," says Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University. He sees a sharp, possibly year-long U.S. recession and a global slowdown. Despite Asia's torrid growth, consumers in China and India accounted for only $1.6 trillion of the world's spending last year, a tiny fraction of the $9.5 trillion spent by Americans, according to Stephen Roach, head of Morgan Stanley's business in Asia. It's impossible to pull U.S. spending back...
...Credit markets are one worry; another is whether the rest of the world will be able to breeze along despite the U.S. slowdown. There are lots of signs that it'll be just fine, thanks. For the emerging economies of Asia, Africa and Latin America, these past five years have seen the best growth run in memory, and so far signs of slowdown outside the U.S. and Europe are few. India and China are posting astonishing growth numbers, while economies of countries from Africa to Latin America that export raw materials, like oil from Nigeria and copper from Chile, have...
...Americans, a global slowdown, short of a recession, wouldn't be all bad news. Exporters would benefit, though they account for only 12% of the economy. A gradual global slowdown would also give the Fed far more room to maneuver without the threat of stoking inflation. But there are downsides too: the U.S. would see high energy prices as Asia's demand for oil kept soaring, a continued dollar slump as low interest rates made it less attractive to hold dollar-denominated securities, and the threat of rising inflation as a weak dollar made imports more expensive. And a global...
...markets reopened after Sept. 11, 2001, that the Fed had changed the federal funds rate between scheduled meetings. The move buoyed stocks in Europe, and added to speculation that the European Central Bank and the Bank of England would also cut rates in an attempt to stave off a slowdown. In morning trading in Europe, though, stocks fell. Britain's FTSE 100 dropped 1.25%, Germany's DAX index slid 2.16%, and France's CAC-40 fell 2.10%. Markets in Asia rebounded however, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rising 10.7% - its biggest gain in 10 years - and indexes...
Hundreds of millions of new drivers in China, India and elsewhere could put upward pressure on prices for decades to come. But a possible economic slowdown in the U.S. this year would reduce demand...