Word: slowdowns
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...skeptical observers of the world economy, has long warned about the dangers of flagging U.S. demand. "The rest of the world doesn't have enough vigor in its private consumption" to offset U.S. declines, he says. Now he's concerned, too, about signs he sees of a possible Chinese slowdown, including a steep drop in the growth of investment spending and reduced gains in industrial output. A less dynamic China is one reason Roach thinks global growth this year will be "significantly below what most are expecting...
...better able to withstand potential shocks such as slower Chinese growth because it's more flexible and healthier, and because interest rates around the globe are relatively low. Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard professor and former chief economist at the IMF, believes Asia is not immune to a sharp U.S. slowdown, although he says Europe may be better insulated because of its big internal market, which now covers 490 million people. But he also points out that, until the early 1990s, Japan was a vital source of global growth that virtually disappeared during the country's prolonged economic slump. "It turned...
...Economic forecasting is a dismal science, and this year could well turn out to be very different from the "happy slowdown" that Goldman's O'Neill predicts. Here are some of the factors that will influence the outcome...
...What economists are struggling to predict is how extensive the impact of this housing slowdown will be. Many other real estate markets around the globe rose in tandem with the U.S. in recent years, but so far none have come back down to earth with the same force. Perhaps most surprisingly, American consumers are continuing to spend, regardless: automobile purchases are sluggish, but monthly retail sales rose by a higher-than-forecast 0.9% from November to December. "I'm not prepared to bet against the American consumer. That's a highly dangerous proposition," says Jesper Koll, chief Japan economist...
...spending is relatively weak; by contrast, China's consumption is rising steadily, propelled partly by housing demand. He points out that China wasn't hit as badly as other Asian countries by the U.S. downturn in 2001, and that it's in a stronger position now to weather a slowdown...